Florida Mortgage Rates - Fourth of July Report
By Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner | July 4, 2008
The market closed early yesterday, with bonds suffering. Today, the market is closed completely in honor of America’s independence, so no harm can be done, except for news that can affect next week’s open.
Mortgage bonds get to take a day off, and so will Florida Mortgage Daily. Look for mortgage rates reports firing back up Monday. Have a great extended weekend!!!
Topics: Florida Mortgage Rates | No Comments »
Florida Mortgage Rates - Afternoon Report
By Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner | July 3, 2008
Locking Stance: LOCKING Mortgage Bonds: -16bp
Mortgage bonds closed down 16 basis points to end the week below their 25-day moving average. The downtrend appears to remain solidly in place and mortgage rates will likely rise unless they can get a break in the news.
Data that flowed in this week continues to keep recessionary fears in play, but inflationary expectations are not diminishing as oil keeps climbing, the dollar keeps dropping, and American wealth wastes away. Where mortgage rates go from here favors climbing at this point on both the fundamentals and the technicals. Time will tell, but things do not look good.
Topics: Florida Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Market Update | No Comments »
Florida Mortgage Rates - Midday Report
By Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner | July 3, 2008
Locking Stance: LOCKING Mortgage Bonds: -19bp
It is not quite midday, but I felt the need to update you on what is happening. The ISM Services Index came out and was worse than expected, with bonds holding on for a while before faltering.
Mortgage bonds have fallen back through their 25-day moving average and even dropped below some other support, so the downtrend appears to have overtaken bonds’ strength. What I had hoped would finally be a broken trend now appears to be confirmation that rates will continue to rise.
The bond market will be closing in about 2 hours, with the stock market closing in just over 1 hour. Bonds may be able to muster strength, but with their move lower on mostly favorable news, that strength may never come.
Topics: Florida Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Market Update | No Comments »
Florida Mortgage Rates - Morning Report
By Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner | July 3, 2008
Locking Stance: LOCKING Mortgage Bonds: +9bp
The Jobs Jamboree was released this morning and the Nonfarm Payrolls missed slightly (-62K vs -60K). Unemployment remained at 5.5%, slightly higher than expected. Hourly Earnings and Average Work Week were right on target, while the Initial Jobless Claims were slightly higher than expected. Still to come is the ISM Services Index at 10:00 ET.
Bonds have had an up and down day already and rest only slightly higher overall. Of concern is the fact that the ECB did raise rates 1/4 percent as expected, something our own Federal Reserve (Bernanke and buddies) should have done at their last meeting. The ECB’s move will help reduce demand for bonds overall and so bonds will struggle to make any serious gains in all likelihood.
Bonds remain hovering around their 25-day moving average, so despite the "big news", the future direction of bonds is still a cloudy picture. I am going to hold the locking stance for now, awaiting clearer direction.
Topics: Florida Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Market Update | No Comments »
Florida Mortgage Rates - Evening Report
By Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner | July 2, 2008
Locking Stance: LOCKING Mortgage Bonds: -6bp
Mortgage bonds failed to maintain their ground, though they only slipped a few basis points. The biggest problem is that they remain below their 25-day moving average and within the downtrend.
Tomorrow will be a key day on multiple levels. The Jobs Jamboree will need to miss expectations as today’s ADP report priced in the current forecasts since the ADP confirmed them. Adding to the pressure, the European Central Bank (ECB) may raise rates tomorrow (something our Federal Reserve should have done), and that will cause the further deterioration of the dollar and erode demand for mortgage bonds as well.
Overall, things do not look very promising for mortgage rates and so I will keep my locking stance for now. If the ECB holds rates and the jobs data misses, my stance may change. I will be in Santiago, Chile again tomorrow morning, so my reports may be delayed a while.
Topics: Florida Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Market Update | No Comments »
Florida Mortgage Rates - Morning Update
By Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner | July 2, 2008
Locking Stance: LOCKING Mortgage Bonds: 0bp
Mortgage bonds ended the day down 25bp, more importantly they were just below their 25-day moving average. Today, they have been unable to muster any real strength, even on the heels of the ADP report showing forthcoming dismal jobs data.
In the past, the ADP report has been enough to send the markets running one way or the other, but today has them flatlining. Part of the reason is some traders are “on vacation” with the shortened trading week. Remember that shortened trading weeks can add volatility and movements may not be normal due to reduced volume.
Technically speaking, bonds are still in their overall downtrend, though indications may be they are about to break free, if they can at least hold their ground. Crude Inventories are due out at 10:#0 and they may help create some movement.
Topics: Florida Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Market Update | No Comments »
Florida Mortgage Rates - Afternoon Report
By Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner | July 1, 2008
Locking Stance: LOCKING Mortgage Bonds: -12bp
It looks like today’s rally is faltering and we are retesting the 25-day moving average. Stocks have staged a comeback and bonds suffer as the money flows. While bonds may bounce back off this level, the overall downtrend is not completely broken and caution should be exercised. I am changing back to a locking stance until things show improvement and a pattern solidifies.
Topics: Florida Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Market Update | No Comments »
Florida Mortgage Rates - Morning Report
By Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner | July 1, 2008
Locking Stance: CAUTIOUSLY FLOATING Mortgage Bonds: +9bp
Mortgage bonds are still holding above their 25-day moving average and appear to be breaking the downtrend. They are, however, hitting resistance and may not be able to break it, even with stocks under pressure today.
The big data release of the day will be this morning’s ISM Index at 10:00am. I am holding my cautiously floating stance until at least then.
Topics: Florida Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Market Update | No Comments »
Florida Mortgage Rates - Morning Report
By Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner | June 30, 2008
Locking Stance: CAUTIOUSLY FLOATING Mortgage Bonds: 0bp
Well, as luck would have it, I missed my flight by about 3 minutes, so I bought another 3 hours in the Big D (Dallas, TX). The good news is that it allowed me to watch the market react to the Chicago PMI data.
The Chicago PMI’s release this morning beat expectations. Combine that with oil hitting new heights (thanks to Bernanke and gang), and you would think bonds would be selling like hot cakes, but they remain flat. Why?
If I were to sum it up into one word, it would be "confusion." The data lately has been presenting mixed signals, right? Not really, but on the surface they have. The battle between recession and inflation is still on but traders remain rather skeptical as to which direction the winning plays are and so they just sit.
We also have a shortened trading week to celebrate independence. That means volume will be lighter than normal and usually presents more volatility in the markets, yet we remain flat.
I am going to hold my cautiously floating stance as bonds are delicately balancing on the edge of breaking the downtrend. If they are successful, floating will prove beneficial. If not, I will be switching back to a locking stance.
Topics: Florida Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Market Update | No Comments »
Florida Mortgage Rates - Morning Report
By Florida's #1 Mortgage Planner | June 30, 2008
Locking Stance: CAUTIOUSLY FLOATING Mortgage Bonds: +6bp
I will be on a plane this morning, so I will give you an update once I get back to the office, but for now, I wanted to let you know i posted my weekly review at Lenderama.
Topics: Florida Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Market Update | No Comments »